Essential use of BeforeIT
We start by importing the BeforeIT library and other useful libraries.
import BeforeIT as Bit
using FileIO, Plots, StatsPlotsWe then initialise the model loading some precomputed set of parameters and by specifying a number of epochs. In another tutorial we will illustrate how to compute parameters and initial conditions.
parameters = Bit.AUSTRIA2010Q1.parameters
initial_conditions = Bit.AUSTRIA2010Q1.initial_conditionsDict{String, Any} with 21 entries:
"sb_inact" => 2.23847
"C_G" => [11482.3; 11556.2; … ; 14578.2; 14714.8;;]
"E_CB" => 1.0618e5
"D_RoW" => 0.0
"sb_other" => 0.590286
"L_I" => 236919.0
"omega" => 0.85
"r_bar" => 0.00164593
"N_s" => [123.0; 18.0; … ; 5.0; 60.0;;]
"C_E" => [17384.5; 17752.9; … ; 38786.7; 38617.8;;]
"D_H" => 219841.0
"K_H" => 4.05377e5
"L_G" => 2.32611e5
"pi" => [-0.00749736; -0.00789543; … ; 0.00530319; 0.00100796;;]
"w_UB" => 4.06546
"Y" => [1.04531e5; 1.05062e5; … ; 1.35709e5; 1.34636e5;;]
"Y_I" => [19804.6; 19944.1; … ; 36883.2; 36575.9;;]
"Y_EA" => 2.35485e6
"D_I" => 54049.0
⋮ => ⋮We can now initialise the model, by specifying in advance the maximum number of epochs.
T = 16
model = Bit.initialise_model(parameters, initial_conditions, T)Model(Workers{Vector{Float64}, Vector{Int64}}([0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249, 0.7661282859097249 … 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569, 4.655745607447569], [3.7818066335944898, 3.7818066335944898, 3.7818066335944898, 3.7818066335944898, 3.7818066335944898, 3.7818066335944898, 3.7818066335944898, 3.7818066335944898, 3.7818066335944898, 3.7818066335944898 … 22.981960001210975, 22.981960001210975, 22.981960001210975, 22.981960001210975, 22.981960001210975, 22.981960001210975, 22.981960001210975, 22.981960001210975, 22.981960001210975, 22.981960001210975], [6.9734810591562555, 6.9734810591562555, 6.9734810591562555, 6.9734810591562555, 6.9734810591562555, 6.9734810591562555, 6.9734810591562555, 6.9734810591562555, 6.9734810591562555, 6.9734810591562555 … 42.37769888790036, 42.37769888790036, 42.37769888790036, 42.37769888790036, 42.37769888790036, 42.37769888790036, 42.37769888790036, 42.37769888790036, 42.37769888790036, 42.37769888790036], [0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983 … 11.337587012313522, 11.337587012313522, 11.337587012313522, 11.337587012313522, 11.337587012313522, 11.337587012313522, 11.337587012313522, 11.337587012313522, 11.337587012313522, 11.337587012313522], [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 … 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]), Workers{Vector{Float64}, Vector{Int64}}([2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714 … 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714, 2.8287542404944714], [13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994 … 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994, 13.963459838592994], [25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793 … 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793, 25.747990878149793], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [-1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1 … -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0]), Firms{Vector{Float64}, Vector{Int64}}([1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 … 62, 62, 62, 62, 62, 62, 62, 62, 62, 62], [10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621 … 11.988103388298951, 11.988103388298951, 11.988103388298951, 11.988103388298951, 11.988103388298951, 11.988103388298951, 11.988103388298951, 11.988103388298951, 11.988103388298951, 11.988103388298951], [1.6631751855300485, 1.6631751855300485, 1.6631751855300485, 1.6631751855300485, 1.6631751855300485, 1.6631751855300485, 1.6631751855300485, 1.6631751855300485, 1.6631751855300485, 1.6631751855300485 … 3.4759574544453877, 3.4759574544453877, 3.4759574544453877, 3.4759574544453877, 3.4759574544453877, 3.4759574544453877, 3.4759574544453877, 3.4759574544453877, 3.4759574544453877, 3.4759574544453877], [0.042702129272078754, 0.042702129272078754, 0.042702129272078754, 0.042702129272078754, 0.042702129272078754, 0.042702129272078754, 0.042702129272078754, 0.042702129272078754, 0.042702129272078754, 0.042702129272078754 … 0.17805766706016946, 0.17805766706016946, 0.17805766706016946, 0.17805766706016946, 0.17805766706016946, 0.17805766706016946, 0.17805766706016946, 0.17805766706016946, 0.17805766706016946, 0.17805766706016946], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983, 0.2697101055708983 … 2.6020133813757687, 2.6020133813757687, 2.6020133813757687, 2.6020133813757687, 2.6020133813757687, 2.6020133813757687, 2.6020133813757687, 2.6020133813757687, 2.6020133813757687, 2.6020133813757687], [0.011078553057541721, 0.011078553057541721, 0.011078553057541721, 0.011078553057541721, 0.011078553057541721, 0.011078553057541721, 0.011078553057541721, 0.011078553057541721, 0.011078553057541721, 0.011078553057541721 … 0.012425621091468782, 0.012425621091468782, 0.012425621091468782, 0.012425621091468782, 0.012425621091468782, 0.012425621091468782, 0.012425621091468782, 0.012425621091468782, 0.012425621091468782, 0.012425621091468782], [0.009528627732528832, 0.009528627732528832, 0.009528627732528832, 0.009528627732528832, 0.009528627732528832, 0.009528627732528832, 0.009528627732528832, 0.009528627732528832, 0.009528627732528832, 0.009528627732528832 … 0.010357147774366318, 0.010357147774366318, 0.010357147774366318, 0.010357147774366318, 0.010357147774366318, 0.010357147774366318, 0.010357147774366318, 0.010357147774366318, 0.010357147774366318, 0.010357147774366318], [-0.26105054841223635, -0.26105054841223635, -0.26105054841223635, -0.26105054841223635, -0.26105054841223635, -0.26105054841223635, -0.26105054841223635, -0.26105054841223635, -0.26105054841223635, -0.26105054841223635 … 0.013413693877270037, 0.013413693877270037, 0.013413693877270037, 0.013413693877270037, 0.013413693877270037, 0.013413693877270037, 0.013413693877270037, 0.013413693877270037, 0.013413693877270037, 0.013413693877270037], [1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 19 … 2, 5, 4, 2, 1, 2, 7, 1, 2, 2], [10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 205.6185065268258 … 23.976206776597902, 59.94051694149476, 47.952413553195804, 23.976206776597902, 11.988103388298951, 23.976206776597902, 83.91672371809265, 11.988103388298951, 23.976206776597902, 23.976206776597902], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 10.822026659306621, 205.6185065268258 … 23.976206776597902, 59.94051694149476, 47.952413553195804, 23.976206776597902, 11.988103388298951, 23.976206776597902, 83.91672371809265, 11.988103388298951, 23.976206776597902, 23.976206776597902], [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 … 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [298.15365853658534, 298.15365853658534, 298.15365853658534, 298.15365853658534, 298.15365853658534, 298.15365853658534, 298.15365853658534, 298.15365853658534, 298.15365853658534, 5664.919512195122 … 158.41666666666669, 396.0416666666667, 316.83333333333337, 158.41666666666669, 79.20833333333334, 158.41666666666669, 554.4583333333334, 79.20833333333334, 158.41666666666669, 158.41666666666669], [7.65511425407355, 7.65511425407355, 7.65511425407355, 7.65511425407355, 7.65511425407355, 7.65511425407355, 7.65511425407355, 7.65511425407355, 7.65511425407355, 145.44717082739743 … 8.114973344694128, 20.287433361735324, 16.229946689388257, 8.114973344694128, 4.057486672347064, 8.114973344694128, 28.402406706429453, 4.057486672347064, 8.114973344694128, 8.114973344694128], [94.08074124607995, 94.08074124607995, 94.08074124607995, 94.08074124607995, 94.08074124607995, 94.08074124607995, 94.08074124607995, 94.08074124607995, 94.08074124607995, 1787.5340836755188 … 49.987504761422734, 124.96876190355681, 99.97500952284547, 49.987504761422734, 24.993752380711367, 49.987504761422734, 174.95626666497955, 24.993752380711367, 49.987504761422734, 49.987504761422734], [0.36061475737617726, 0.36061475737617726, 0.36061475737617726, 0.36061475737617726, 0.36061475737617726, 0.36061475737617726, 0.36061475737617726, 0.36061475737617726, 0.36061475737617726, 0.36061475737617726 … 0.35565736393550956, 0.35565736393550956, 0.35565736393550956, 0.35565736393550956, 0.35565736393550956, 0.35565736393550956, 0.35565736393550956, 0.35565736393550956, 0.35565736393550956, 0.35565736393550956], [12.384292053067005, 12.384292053067005, 12.384292053067005, 12.384292053067005, 12.384292053067005, 12.384292053067005, 12.384292053067005, 12.384292053067005, 12.384292053067005, 235.30154900827313 … 27.060222993190397, 67.650557482976, 54.120445986380794, 27.060222993190397, 13.530111496595199, 27.060222993190397, 94.71078047616638, 13.530111496595199, 27.060222993190397, 27.060222993190397], [1.2548454674764378, 1.2548454674764378, 1.2548454674764378, 1.2548454674764378, 1.2548454674764378, 1.2548454674764378, 1.2548454674764378, 1.2548454674764378, 1.2548454674764378, 23.84206388205233 … 7.1542129675965755, 17.885532418991442, 14.308425935193151, 7.1542129675965755, 3.5771064837982878, 7.1542129675965755, 25.039745386588013, 3.5771064837982878, 7.1542129675965755, 7.1542129675965755], [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 … 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 … 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [1.3061857958470853, 1.3061857958470853, 1.3061857958470853, 1.3061857958470853, 1.3061857958470853, 1.3061857958470853, 1.3061857958470853, 1.3061857958470853, 1.3061857958470853, 14.192383842657284 … 4.671824563850786, 10.794132553090519, 8.753363223343941, 4.671824563850786, 2.631055234104208, 4.671824563850786, 14.875671212583672, 2.631055234104208, 4.671824563850786, 4.671824563850786], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [11.889212387273595, 11.889212387273595, 11.889212387273595, 11.889212387273595, 11.889212387273595, 11.889212387273595, 11.889212387273595, 11.889212387273595, 11.889212387273595, 129.1824381520196 … 42.524053356193726, 98.25075028996942, 79.67518464537751, 42.524053356193726, 23.948487711601828, 42.524053356193726, 135.40188157915318, 23.948487711601828, 42.524053356193726, 42.524053356193726], [6.447669663541792, 6.447669663541792, 6.447669663541792, 6.447669663541792, 6.447669663541792, 6.447669663541792, 6.447669663541792, 6.447669663541792, 6.447669663541792, 70.05726371132184 … 23.061329873209313, 53.28261969169227, 43.20885641886461, 23.061329873209313, 12.987566600381662, 23.061329873209313, 73.43014623734756, 12.987566600381662, 23.061329873209313, 23.061329873209313]), Bank{Float64}(89460.0, 6476.292527744366, 0.0, 126430.99999999919, 0.028359903595743693, 3695.369633667526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 33636.12938055414, 18241.29672694819), CentralBank{Float64}(0.0016459319014481277, 0.0089810924595537, 0.9259668580654086, -0.003424572940686137, 0.0049629315732038215, 0.30996974466133875, 1.328593153520194, 106179.90000000002), Government{Float64}(0.9905949533296431, 0.09373211872949586, 0.011235005057648862, 0.0, 14732.121510837034, 232610.9, 2.238468336136841, 0.5902859043576301, [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], 0.0, 0.0), RestOfTheWorld{Float64}(0.962809216044625, 0.39260026877953946, 0.020320381298662014, 0.9662360466537488, 0.35492769963078624, 0.02122821278168188, 2.3548476e6, 0.0, 0.0019383188997990075, 0.38456173629534834, 0.0026219533879005877, 0.0025327891562467505, 0.9635784504324201, 0.5360029623199525, 0.006618207536795881, 0.0, 33097.63671130043, 34095.03119997918, [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], 0.0, [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], 0.0), Aggregates{Float64, Int64}([104531.39273728609, 105062.38754395355, 105399.12953350678, 106689.88106040593, 107938.33111423723, 108890.48532381697, 110110.17779727321, 110374.00540561741, 110808.89423399912, 111932.48072916963 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], [-0.007497362866886709, -0.007895434153021436, -0.0019938777296781562, -0.0035311300388783107, 0.001212170001002849, -0.001672412335241874, 0.001839696090252002, 0.004290005139261838, 0.00600429551344886, 0.0036060572293247772 … 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], 1.0, [1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0 … 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0], 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1), MutableNamedTuple(tau_VAT = 0.1528683933530887, tau_EXPORT = 0.0029486201783457183, tau_SIW = 0.17114894621657745, psi_H = 0.07125099957246343, tau_FIRM = 0.07701197259426128, H_inact = 4130, theta_DIV = 0.7858074440019603, I_s = [48, 2, 1, 1, 5, 2, 4, 1, 1, 1 … 14, 10, 13, 41, 20, 16, 7, 7, 2, 19], psi = 0.9096681249468772, tau_INC = 0.21340742230566648, zeta_b = 0.5, tau_CF = 0.08761417854834112, H_act = 4743, zeta = 0.03, mu = 0.026713971694295565, tau_G = 0.009147800682711324, theta_UB = 0.3585824478060919, T_prime = 54, tau_SIF = 0.21215146534992413, T = 16, zeta_LTV = 0.6, I = 624, products = MutableNamedTuple(a_sg = [0.37790282216028437 0.0 … 0.0 0.0; 0.0006712800413285777 0.8149348034258406 … 2.4029219530949635e-5 0.00019143106686926454; … ; 0.00037430822580994426 0.000357977071568566 … 0.3197327950788158 0.0011366219595362582; 0.0 5.36965607352849e-5 … 0.0 0.05594572929254256], b_CF_g = [0.0033476048872100555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008050086095806136, 0.0, 0.003306696048303853, 0.0030629933432974495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0017883064872300512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002291709084994238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], b_CFH_g = [0.0006092803753845975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004372477702289994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06710603871527036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 … 0.0041711096896454745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0], c_E_g = [0.005090338238241512, 0.0005933402816643566, 1.793599921320476e-5, 0.007268146142708006, 0.05434404438533037, 0.02138421321578873, 0.023894091259534518, 0.028037089231640524, 0.005923381894006229, 0.011927802553688313 … 0.0014618202435669027, 0.0009447261124040238, 0.0001280209174610526, 0.0010477673386531637, 0.0, 0.0013030104043795392, 5.5260305268213854e-5, 0.0, 1.307076865739618e-5, 8.641230390167474e-6], b_HH_g = [0.011287997598927976, 0.0020040637862256817, 0.0003326837475323491, 0.00034402684015257527, 0.06305103828047173, 0.03068200872784047, 0.0003505790613555631, 0.0020473225369636873, 0.0, 0.0191077565617325 … 0.005591228759882936, 0.0004356874830029748, 0.014434120586233577, 0.03514505772295519, 0.024907176866291014, 0.013342154173060372, 0.009686226103767459, 0.011051272187723254, 0.0021206651420422927, 0.01721782824162338], c_G_g = [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.57086390274792e-6, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4536198623552867e-5, 0.0 … 0.008555738848801895, 0.3324338967920097, 0.22067672180252998, 0.2370889178393625, 0.0477595425645907, 0.012942508661614227, 0.004667927760053456, 0.021757222045203074, 0.0, 0.002000708524749294], c_I_g = [0.016810689305736877, 0.004087420487057966, 0.00036885674795364003, 0.05818437780960789, 0.04895082866561155, 0.04689140072807505, 0.010101572733480902, 0.016066325760592727, 0.00037371898454196314, 0.041008926225895866 … 0.0018123421762754539, 0.000401097116716159, 0.0003479865324437806, 0.0006664256271585853, 0.0028556289501379516, 0.001307065586721844, 6.418152296577174e-5, 0.0, 3.538212163497461e-5, 0.00020458795490837936]), J = 156, G = 62, H = 8873, L = 312, theta = 0.05, C = [4.3800671000101816e-5 0.00010629745355671226 9.959785873214212e-5; 0.00010629745355671226 0.0004129178961230129 0.0003596689472264872; 9.959785873214212e-5 0.0003596689472264872 0.0004506370179043619]))Note that the it is very simple to inspect the model by typing
fieldnames(typeof(model))(:w_act, :w_inact, :firms, :bank, :cb, :gov, :rotw, :agg, :prop)and to inspect the specific attributes of one agent type by typing
fieldnames(typeof(model.bank))(:E_k, :Pi_k, :Pi_e_k, :D_k, :r, :Y_h, :C_d_h, :I_d_h, :C_h, :I_h, :K_h, :D_h)We can now define a data tracker, which will store the time series of the model.
data = Bit.initialise_data(model);We can run now the model for a number of epochs and progressively update the data tracker.
for t in 1:T
println(t)
Bit.one_epoch!(model; multi_threading = true)
Bit.update_data!(data, model)
end1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16Note that we can equivalently run the model for a number of epochs in the single command data = BeforeIT.run_one_sim!(model) , but writing the loop explicitely is more instructive.
We can then plot any time series stored in the data tracker, for example
p1 = plot(data.real_gdp, title = "gdp", titlefont = 10)
p2 = plot(data.real_household_consumption, title = "household cons.", titlefont = 10)
p3 = plot(data.real_government_consumption, title = "gov. cons.", titlefont = 10)
p4 = plot(data.real_capitalformation, title = "capital form.", titlefont = 10)
p5 = plot(data.real_exports, title = "exports", titlefont = 10)
p6 = plot(data.real_imports, title = "imports", titlefont = 10)
p7 = plot(data.wages, title = "wages", titlefont = 10)
p8 = plot(data.euribor, title = "euribor", titlefont = 10)
p9 = plot(data.nominal_gdp ./ data.real_gdp, title = "gdp deflator", titlefont = 10)
plot(p1, p2, p3, p4, p5, p6, p7, p8, p9, layout = (3, 3), legend = false)
To run multiple monte-carlo repetitions in parallel we can use
model = Bit.initialise_model(parameters, initial_conditions, T)
data_vector = Bit.run_n_sims(model, 4)4-element Vector{BeforeIT.Data}:
BeforeIT.Data{Float64, Vector{Float64}, Matrix{Float64}}([72422.00000000003, 73225.18156893371, 73412.99791812907, 73365.83329706342, 73889.95664260068, 74756.8994299326, 75750.51437686989, 76640.85923673584, 77022.66166468708, 77478.89076897944, 78002.34847598129, 79326.39350272245, 80144.88454245192, 81752.72424811132, 82567.3834299692, 83518.88048343814, 84582.92121595745], [72422.00000000003, 72676.48278594555, 72651.65815610507, 72893.78489668258, 73124.71939364908, 73496.88066296565, 74290.07342264922, 74469.69107542225, 75200.79554860739, 75407.17312660841, 75526.04419257087, 76322.2291797264, 76703.36274771286, 77646.87777370683, 78077.33130730741, 78821.27468460391, 79524.94009806962], [64900.92049553808, 65649.45319624289, 65804.0154097198, 65770.85340066566, 66240.89757264985, 67040.60571314876, 67942.98028309477, 68735.82804161041, 69093.46574924413, 69491.12554843526, 69976.92250252025, 71180.6278135297, 71920.47350492452, 73399.85048145037, 74139.66067756648, 75003.32310355394, 75958.52010157796], [64900.92049553808, 65157.521673496114, 65121.585664947175, 65347.67240831252, 65554.87738086976, 65910.64417125024, 66633.06560101651, 66788.60246413494, 67459.15395878609, 67632.99374817261, 67755.39768540238, 68484.95121556954, 68832.11822849956, 69713.508281936, 70107.91197765664, 70784.68363540444, 71416.27026090915], [40512.94792630531, 40781.75008091306, 40943.32616742323, 40857.94013859464, 41128.766608893035, 41408.42944391175, 41889.74824551517, 42444.23138972847, 42545.01749541781, 42836.52153808539, 43001.89105231976, 43587.544033287115, 43950.1471080672, 44600.95117858597, 45036.072516677625, 45536.81888821736, 46191.56504645681], [40512.94792630531, 40476.15989789019, 40518.71767730915, 40595.053118594675, 40702.81881243138, 40710.49522502587, 41082.129915752324, 41241.82363043953, 41538.67307537722, 41691.11049092863, 41636.73001437478, 41936.843189219064, 42062.87270474224, 42360.96884361269, 42586.9902689478, 42975.55342067826, 43429.3518188699], [14866.888022051655, 15054.461661670894, 15240.455962320133, 15210.604810516665, 15405.656533087687, 15750.078664996205, 15946.32027591992, 16070.807860322895, 16302.47110621157, 16250.502339342773, 16559.133865825137, 16900.6770658453, 17273.358195811954, 17227.571550617675, 17369.32839947141, 17376.165809875387, 17319.339152453977], [14866.888022051655, 14941.653955150887, 15082.402682321623, 15112.737160863477, 15246.108703323815, 15484.612937411985, 15638.881318024467, 15615.536002720904, 15916.858364781183, 15815.978147531758, 16033.438743528392, 16260.632701872753, 16531.61854469631, 16362.355564677031, 16424.77636682285, 16398.82539537872, 16283.658554668278], [15944.236265986623, 16280.464051176357, 16128.955212174138, 16098.748483882651, 16166.546099129795, 16423.34785117346, 16726.49941891103, 17015.167409251855, 17023.62439720147, 17024.054769049413, 16886.234538605957, 17427.856480869512, 17637.35667445668, 18036.900433759623, 18157.947892083866, 18426.139295052766, 19184.603344401447], [15944.236265986623, 16158.469532078238, 15961.687626444736, 15995.166364952967, 15999.118158661708, 16146.534250466213, 16404.018905437704, 16533.142675887604, 16620.953757264906, 16568.84646315239, 16350.155103363039, 16767.847341990382, 16879.986472437402, 17131.0377272107, 17170.510370278702, 17389.74203611519, 18037.381658567287], [15944.236265986623, 16114.775141674643, 16143.136621866715, 16143.367990488201, 16256.05009170224, 16394.63401466637, 16612.95289876093, 16836.692045536733, 16942.105790416157, 17038.10353793343, 17143.344377613983, 17412.24799279296, 17544.61732905823, 17890.794655038342, 18104.612361603566, 18311.16449413362, 18565.023219673825], [15944.236265986623, 15994.022180481199, 15975.721965844768, 16039.498781972363, 16087.695208085739, 16118.3043823038, 16292.661518781952, 16359.723362315137, 16541.363362051645, 16582.519580267755, 16599.102595876604, 16752.829961878593, 16791.22947076857, 16992.26978220652, 17120.075250370934, 17281.234111768037, 17454.851857082696], [3173.232035084206, 3196.4769399827564, 3187.0368550962726, 3190.9775443747053, 3210.8179220044694, 3208.7013666613566, 3255.1706417566716, 3306.1562368409404, 3332.873176900797, 3352.076362249715, 3365.554861986273, 3416.1246633450123, 3416.7703939294997, 3474.7787939052787, 3519.4384566420727, 3553.587491524666, 3602.683406818115], [3173.232035084206, 3172.524756195137, 3153.985243670104, 3170.446245570059, 3177.565263792692, 3154.619081676061, 3192.412196387621, 3212.495737346972, 3254.038603037047, 3262.44477783591, 3258.710156876455, 3286.7528441638638, 3270.0499906815694, 3300.2658539206354, 3328.0497816427664, 3353.7122883343945, 3387.24624310409], [34195.564496956766, 32939.90339786164, 33489.538957807636, 33457.63705190664, 34624.407419383, 35126.25324387666, 34402.514251240726, 34320.499676274085, 33831.910979684835, 35462.4822976727, 36792.49262343654, 37393.214049143455, 38242.08789874502, 38274.09426707694, 39017.83205777614, 38747.266393330116, 38188.12499938817], [34195.564496956766, 32693.07458134103, 33142.231010394076, 33242.36485582958, 34265.82165909707, 34534.20436761189, 33739.24693016755, 33348.230094231265, 33031.66322241493, 34514.2465977398, 35624.45846983899, 35977.09824444953, 36599.924712270484, 36351.86407288051, 36896.02448225507, 36567.88632687456, 35904.51014667714], [33097.63671130043, 31831.397622687742, 32389.27838159692, 32259.097187837284, 33435.42001789253, 33951.20977402534, 33214.567814717935, 33209.84709884141, 32680.362313828537, 34094.67017517106, 35237.40360420552, 35982.898126422704, 36958.06533462941, 36386.79318192703, 37013.79743604007, 36567.5099030374, 36300.71132674322], [33097.63671130043, 31592.87518051463, 32053.38084036496, 32051.536603558285, 33089.14793986456, 33378.96611755046, 32574.203646733433, 32269.0413278573, 31907.35287123119, 33183.008572744075, 34118.738138533896, 34620.1922978049, 35371.03968643412, 34559.348434672975, 35000.970180996796, 34510.732494442884, 34129.96208071317], [29576.147776884896, 29917.263335845288, 29955.504172184363, 29956.445407602998, 30174.239824589506, 30481.25303323698, 30870.526025604693, 31255.888531369656, 31432.597338551852, 31583.3349689857, 31828.971249617563, 32320.538830920912, 32602.309838398185, 33275.60847451014, 33681.82691830278, 34080.022269796114, 34552.57052443273], [34346.71094688279, 34742.84764431496, 34862.77727127414, 34829.09092124438, 35074.98145020359, 35550.39010235611, 36046.50349222038, 36446.98835016935, 36623.81379024435, 36868.073593774054, 37098.25113377576, 37786.37620065405, 38229.220565562835, 39007.94232473619, 39337.93026238988, 39790.80508351828, 40263.69540967067], [28335.329312139696, 28662.13393083297, 28761.07340365253, 28733.28285849979, 28936.137481860107, 29328.339830941357, 29737.623162312037, 30068.01492390047, 30213.892271022236, 30415.401579480804, 30605.29331049089, 31172.982321764444, 31538.3198043875, 32180.74922136515, 32452.98247528315, 32826.594877754374, 33216.719659739334], [978.0617717704321, 989.342216082936, 985.7339662610025, 985.3170718182873, 991.6762978566971, 1008.9625775558012, 1025.950765269377, 1032.9511600714945, 1037.0546204480893, 1039.716985675265, 1049.7001191272052, 1073.7127819544587, 1088.9431009634495, 1116.299682204666, 1119.90349687332, 1132.4957502395487, 1142.2541674744366], [0.0019383188997990075, -0.0007683022297610975, -0.002546535645823522, -0.001147949307119922, 0.002337791808337375, 0.003763697568966995, -0.00037446688486975077, 0.002787609982295436, 0.003010359890772918, 0.0044511559696633896, 0.0021704186428010974, 0.007229356348578131, 0.0016522036914978777, 0.0013021257994332291, 0.003400671729517857, 0.0033645931121530914, 0.005394193845063233], [2.3548476e6, 2.329505803911309e6, 2.334638747065674e6, 2.341331397750215e6, 2.3667233776130676e6, 2.3697230104863453e6, 2.352823186830382e6, 2.337383958479047e6, 2.3359230902145905e6, 2.357839690031811e6, 2.374000301788341e6, 2.36530046853846e6, 2.3688500432835696e6, 2.3802454338638675e6, 2.3895762084940565e6, 2.3927009077168875e6, 2.380492774534253e6], [0.0016459319014481277, 0.0004479426982451529, 0.0005730730132839551, 0.0007862693836614778, 0.0018484306274042042, 0.0019226183110742168, 0.00107022777188579, 0.0004095276764351371, 0.00038681580536534146, 0.0013831775344339478, 0.0020047414301496056, 0.001661770883809588, 0.0017242670140710627, 0.00209965731327751, 0.002407831506646358, 0.00243540208979342, 0.0018770318642833278], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.90462950861706; 524.0587378928133 261.2217068707269 … 138.57728153687046 510.727930981677; … ; 594.625478666805 297.73333585840476 … 156.35388510109036 571.3455269574938; 607.2094651895484 304.45935762080626 … 158.4452713853596 578.7906957521137], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.90462950861706; 520.1318047594947 259.2642923641447 … 137.5388793902325 506.90088968026294; … ; 561.1801537228994 280.9870164999687 … 147.55959914958254 539.2096069710444; 570.8988960417897 286.2529672541451 … 148.97038946635413 544.1795429539177])
BeforeIT.Data{Float64, Vector{Float64}, Matrix{Float64}}([72422.00000000003, 73232.8576795804, 73623.92185560182, 74702.6109903763, 75777.86385104532, 76268.75590704402, 77882.2835744241, 78041.2381089954, 78451.86928905956, 79386.329050531, 80459.20177123383, 81352.65537588317, 80953.0751381276, 80980.6203175583, 83410.35060123735, 84082.31813258969, 85237.40977167232], [72422.00000000003, 72520.14139059905, 72188.37299723887, 72542.75279255632, 72808.26004863543, 72888.21351432387, 74013.32288505994, 73813.6881572212, 73634.9936991739, 74072.29867077428, 74572.22162603872, 75053.19099450296, 74962.67636191973, 75154.91874497078, 77238.40848327392, 77678.00312883375, 78455.0663899294], [64900.92049553808, 65642.17537112694, 65994.10135974274, 66965.15767335484, 67927.76800934045, 68554.76820120902, 69980.78589609789, 70067.1648452561, 70404.63648111095, 71235.86714820657, 72253.67305976491, 73025.96509556226, 72639.07740058567, 72737.98161145461, 74977.54798131471, 75605.31806295994, 76648.6653170619], [64900.92049553808, 65003.33306572534, 64707.32181203704, 65029.010558125694, 65265.79592516734, 65516.14121206884, 66504.34815934248, 66271.57617265187, 66081.85388900865, 66467.41939805391, 66967.06904982644, 67371.26994259031, 67263.90123065167, 67505.25096307232, 69429.5904082813, 69846.67244533052, 70549.728602242], [40512.94792630531, 40856.691614522686, 41092.04542235217, 41641.66939580349, 42257.69320788783, 41521.58023606441, 42441.52618342872, 42913.45350218367, 43260.2503780251, 43822.11723352257, 44027.59795403957, 44784.33234018752, 44695.177478798076, 44107.33353749764, 45157.30409933534, 45358.124025889214, 45925.48029348452], [40512.94792630531, 40459.06641525796, 40290.81618317185, 40437.69406183534, 40601.687086127815, 39681.17441678204, 40333.15713126322, 40588.8008867259, 40604.109154793136, 40888.71465565588, 40806.218804231255, 41316.500772583255, 41387.805448587416, 40934.276065914906, 41815.893050282444, 41903.32258020201, 42271.18837921506], [14866.888022051655, 14935.96982118985, 15090.111493510607, 15307.582052752608, 15549.742145163873, 15421.831636624915, 15497.860230130509, 15770.113143610457, 15992.018831934216, 15966.054553093863, 16321.070096192478, 16561.890519928587, 16534.56544305356, 16714.541954588487, 17031.80396267668, 17065.884073756442, 17054.95412827819], [14866.888022051655, 14790.610083490195, 14795.878426579497, 14864.997701990154, 14940.37456663795, 14738.273146637932, 14727.972532341895, 14915.834781616317, 15010.122978557918, 14897.305059890941, 15126.901952717613, 15279.436506146709, 15311.033904243035, 15512.106940284108, 15771.537011819722, 15766.02341513902, 15697.89089081338], [15944.236265986623, 16206.2900967328, 16115.143217261097, 16505.71544528123, 16651.229349040204, 19232.56062984836, 19162.46417053479, 17752.48582280873, 17321.524026884803, 17753.65849663331, 18739.19193554872, 18435.990214514975, 17963.007967715235, 18342.236448445437, 19837.18793537324, 20069.151797448372, 20359.72472664243], [15944.236265986623, 16048.56735721551, 15800.923669255248, 16028.489758752457, 15998.696386552461, 18380.095085386034, 18210.52982571938, 16790.820908173762, 16257.997726991158, 16565.248833013684, 17368.09641840404, 17008.41709898218, 16633.773954514178, 17022.705981730756, 18369.336825316193, 18540.540636105732, 18739.70078851764], [15944.236265986623, 16118.007398896993, 16193.819539022878, 16422.173632496975, 16652.93044070676, 18413.923572490727, 19088.155216368996, 17113.287219259557, 17259.311901451227, 17477.22328029666, 19785.679707127412, 17865.964969074772, 17810.08658499954, 19846.13019235978, 19907.87572446923, 20017.792465453436, 20225.63980230278], [15944.236265986623, 15961.143843614434, 15878.065928431952, 15947.36336983105, 16000.330815370202, 17597.743361960183, 18139.91231984375, 16186.248152331344, 16199.605371196109, 16307.317874969573, 18338.015536580107, 16482.531208472028, 16492.16851084481, 18418.41043153288, 18434.794077199447, 18493.09320078281, 18616.28500583331], [3173.232035084206, 3201.141305326868, 3208.631584210601, 3245.349866640165, 3296.225535234791, 2692.36917970349, 3212.4422492720078, 3361.8782760197696, 3394.9157181239725, 3431.0126165459055, 3448.271437117337, 3504.7916061993137, 3497.668991627862, 3467.834634606548, 3428.8807573516788, 3447.578638287326, 3541.8299063616714], [3173.232035084206, 3169.9871810180603, 3146.068394264654, 3151.5178650363523, 3167.0521409797643, 2573.0323944026536, 3052.8576530215723, 3179.7629138338307, 3186.4708869103106, 3201.3445427639645, 3195.9708296209787, 3233.401449536287, 3238.8470505060536, 3218.3605060425043, 3175.161004212836, 3184.9862158829683, 3260.0063890935785], [34195.564496956766, 34947.12457642865, 34931.77359801888, 36142.90184031748, 35863.028094582296, 34294.76746251253, 34846.94650528241, 35372.23962905136, 35600.20115875, 35861.4909054918, 36043.054075334825, 36855.42204392579, 36753.33394440635, 36634.74454385694, 37284.57742733503, 39335.36985634706, 41474.82324672377], [34195.564496956766, 34607.012422842316, 34250.659818077045, 35097.9110187401, 34457.61787076065, 32774.683466428985, 33115.85363042512, 33456.099988505164, 33414.38020240292, 33460.963580266194, 33405.88220384407, 34001.557995435454, 34033.645701477035, 33999.26104096995, 34525.70814893643, 36339.30475081535, 38174.67025392514], [33097.63671130043, 33713.21842929341, 33605.15187554171, 34895.25774377808, 34543.82894562884, 34201.98405800606, 34066.51351495311, 33767.05398865891, 33722.12510653429, 34016.99213821091, 34671.71228988109, 35284.979742673175, 34993.00969584599, 34818.23616683053, 35900.52282348399, 37746.211620851755, 39577.5726234562], [33097.63671130043, 33385.11488820702, 32949.90509984499, 33886.339748761224, 33190.11586144386, 32686.012600910995, 32374.190234690148, 31937.868407800346, 31651.616363571695, 31739.933458052798, 32134.877753157805, 32552.72137864449, 32403.58264690235, 32313.43128392894, 33244.06655308126, 34871.18825342809, 36428.38392254182], [29576.147776884896, 29913.946741419855, 30088.739785190286, 30518.1059780828, 30939.88482130894, 31239.30556278784, 31856.517038690152, 31922.723961882857, 32094.867970783842, 32480.5357515793, 32982.929088015386, 33253.61087492938, 33094.542856187654, 33130.038796649744, 34062.76812579969, 34382.890843511115, 34865.325640548646], [34346.71094688279, 34738.996090998415, 34910.63138085079, 35437.54342241481, 35961.819108031465, 36282.31703947879, 37069.01927131336, 37087.968993666815, 37251.60906267956, 37691.31247058312, 38194.02711292459, 38680.241731192094, 38453.37074343444, 38517.95606686803, 39790.25256329933, 40087.515436541085, 40625.25998111382], [28335.329312139696, 28658.95647865257, 28800.55205870892, 29235.243643569487, 29667.760289057605, 29932.16448326019, 30581.1776258607, 30596.810756616338, 30731.81044410631, 31094.556701874204, 31509.28593061489, 31910.40297923979, 31723.239085747187, 31776.520647729994, 32826.13905995046, 33071.374809557, 33515.002986352134], [978.0617717704321, 989.2325387089707, 994.7301937014007, 1009.508272857208, 1026.064080000374, 1033.1455989425367, 1055.2495860943727, 1056.4718897070452, 1058.1594476483817, 1064.0189260441066, 1076.7168588250993, 1092.1124894411523, 1091.163800963595, 1089.9867479365714, 1124.5272922150266, 1134.9117829070362, 1158.079695399771], [0.0019383188997990075, 0.0028351466162883643, 0.004910973052403733, 0.0053897412252263965, 0.006046756617997584, 0.0022186345039536537, 0.004096849473312014, 0.006791083025466937, 0.005978250321365897, 0.009750732546728313, 0.006771857979261275, 0.005347345976914442, 0.004102396169980427, 0.006566075461170273, 0.008455098801132488, 0.009549359419240622, 0.009138296748463892], [2.3548476e6, 2.377294172858028e6, 2.371840735583607e6, 2.3907188475777525e6, 2.3812805758125517e6, 2.382627406181618e6, 2.3940642592817014e6, 2.396714569817119e6, 2.409640166092094e6, 2.4132720536442758e6, 2.4196244056064896e6, 2.4276594641303634e6, 2.4219488078862014e6, 2.437559966612886e6, 2.4193535435699304e6, 2.441084709555655e6, 2.4692882565255407e6], [0.0016459319014481277, 0.002526713156794364, 0.002226715277191878, 0.0029684213531070143, 0.00249910776173108, 0.0024206357306141776, 0.002807580717574221, 0.0028644564825401737, 0.003320040642834206, 0.0034462590049969565, 0.0036054310412372845, 0.003787853143936276, 0.003370193395836723, 0.0039053646191050794, 0.0030756042106695504, 0.0039505370914211186, 0.00500419289347092], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.90462950861706; 524.0006413259844 261.192748123829 … 138.56191901409267 510.67131225322476; … ; 606.9099941281492 299.72484362412547 … 157.082410130921 570.3933447441104; 605.9152148143033 302.03323685413716 … 159.37302487891827 577.0428988866142], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.90462950861706; 518.9009660662283 258.6507699455883 … 137.21340770587682 505.70136059367223; … ; 560.6833573316368 276.89564058058795 … 145.11788229236714 526.9480789983855; 557.7025220764363 278.00044267923795 … 146.69170826674724 531.1275772370087])
BeforeIT.Data{Float64, Vector{Float64}, Matrix{Float64}}([72422.00000000003, 73796.23331298387, 74485.94206512511, 75306.1497156008, 75468.65097952077, 75687.61031633071, 76341.8565258748, 76468.7451325673, 76373.16689850832, 77121.10965943431, 77300.65777312857, 77557.8331183277, 78117.34681430267, 78611.25759917885, 78580.12921128931, 78962.45887240932, 79285.03049468712], [72422.00000000003, 73688.64569464576, 74130.41335451507, 74576.72418146198, 74505.22381336732, 74163.27236417978, 74457.5136993834, 74582.78013974747, 74598.25243621474, 74850.5570157301, 74898.09093013208, 75005.13504009586, 75507.42795671562, 75562.89833240697, 75447.99151805879, 76047.92964645356, 76653.40021432054], [64900.92049553808, 66148.88478885531, 66773.92437262017, 67519.59234648966, 67652.18116633412, 67844.20030142806, 68439.28488612773, 68556.91713863163, 68464.40545070698, 69129.24618226501, 69297.96827200797, 69526.02466022749, 70046.45497863487, 70491.32230492265, 70469.84036713751, 70815.9744372767, 71105.76295207744], [64900.92049553808, 66052.44624923545, 66455.20587921888, 66865.58845838527, 66788.53847047001, 66477.82753684263, 66750.00090229293, 66866.08324937458, 66873.29081815184, 67093.98510563423, 67144.13147871717, 67237.68133755511, 67706.18650804229, 67757.83498850223, 67660.97194880791, 68202.13451753101, 68745.61907970051], [40512.94792630531, 41158.37026662608, 41511.110945731394, 41898.95035181274, 42024.81552355398, 42092.69830144873, 42362.87845201609, 42400.597869985235, 42418.42560332222, 42841.24202250273, 42878.72524798003, 43082.737095470395, 43261.868143315274, 43520.93010132859, 43472.23780600621, 43642.78344199764, 43816.31936520833], [40512.94792630531, 41098.36542853487, 41312.974339798326, 41493.11146142145, 41488.329864906525, 41244.95720800963, 41317.23730896204, 41354.862869119, 41432.620246172155, 41579.93632081699, 41546.01985428045, 41664.73435136617, 41816.478993705605, 41833.29101979436, 41739.47106194594, 42031.91455999791, 42361.9672372435], [14866.888022051655, 15011.134280376291, 15114.199128170307, 15510.3525409525, 15653.920775547516, 15942.513601792114, 16234.613397981486, 16157.063086344202, 16067.861297080613, 16468.457786693696, 16138.845044750233, 16460.62709939333, 16512.161036533762, 16720.416413134768, 16735.28837517424, 16826.549583257733, 16733.637849392115], [14866.888022051655, 14989.249529444138, 15042.057572610222, 15360.1171720007, 15454.083991184314, 15621.433593659453, 15833.895119837727, 15758.57798874243, 15694.44376638934, 15983.603503211114, 15637.236712999897, 15918.85060211803, 15960.48586800539, 16072.038078098429, 16068.233891387055, 16205.476338671446, 16178.214615139817], [15944.236265986623, 16588.58282524268, 16513.557793250828, 16811.57718589928, 16838.54983677167, 16508.47893779459, 16542.886547458635, 16900.95929552081, 16949.946171989995, 16893.86234669414, 16999.085979683598, 16323.028807885144, 17065.853234801296, 17100.026536426205, 17331.54616125137, 17617.627072165928, 17669.797135364064], [15944.236265986623, 16564.39831015763, 16434.73696146649, 16648.73797934238, 16623.590166222155, 16176.000466456919, 16134.559176161305, 16484.127326836442, 16556.028964972236, 16396.483561779696, 16470.740665263253, 15785.781149028599, 16495.67908021555, 16436.927815627845, 16640.725344863327, 16967.354908316735, 17083.300883811553], [15944.236265986623, 16239.214448582381, 16387.64131060222, 16568.994519918262, 16600.544862412924, 16622.133343042606, 16730.751428220196, 16765.523607823437, 16742.79178405476, 16915.598319321125, 16930.205394909284, 17012.56950074307, 17133.602436033027, 17230.10353491064, 17198.356613454147, 17284.245141516196, 17399.08446174512], [15944.236265986623, 16215.53927807876, 16309.421490545457, 16408.50500181807, 16388.62354560368, 16287.365887779764, 16317.786995990336, 16352.031918430079, 16353.68885060984, 16417.57959716603, 16404.0009446662, 16452.626659069396, 16561.164764762547, 16561.960734729328, 16512.844620138643, 16646.27820972486, 16821.573710541536], [3173.232035084206, 3222.6396287223756, 3250.655104638304, 3281.792569985908, 3291.7245800402243, 3296.375595349278, 3317.6124784263575, 3317.664616828682, 3322.560960060094, 3356.9506111379683, 3355.3282965793887, 3376.99820050325, 3390.5619928696565, 3392.8623905128934, 3374.2715354791467, 3391.197477388206, 3431.973119361189], [3173.232035084206, 3217.9413384865134, 3235.1394088446364, 3250.0046840385385, 3249.7026697139527, 3229.9870490133935, 3235.7239894729646, 3235.840345822142, 3245.344553574024, 3258.1173199863774, 3251.041984600134, 3265.8494426019597, 3277.282522382204, 3261.2951846842134, 3239.7759171905473, 3266.0273104509456, 3318.059000567717], [34195.564496956766, 35390.87854795803, 35777.27173942919, 35711.56433307922, 36734.100988445156, 37920.506850241036, 37402.17336511695, 38422.90637999284, 38376.54824985951, 39745.13767555795, 39853.76244557436, 39028.60780177937, 38385.2980402471, 38900.17468156053, 37694.478910424536, 36889.26911708741, 37742.008208175015], [34195.564496956766, 35339.28214306113, 35606.50331067619, 35365.65729909903, 36265.156196705044, 37156.7931127473, 36478.97709660783, 37475.274033869515, 37484.676231613936, 38574.98558850757, 38615.07533761425, 37744.040555300744, 37102.83624021312, 37391.71760313273, 36192.00876425615, 35527.67457581786, 36489.274734746694], [33097.63671130043, 34352.73260721868, 34430.197541456226, 34626.29469614292, 35782.73614479798, 36776.58737494534, 36200.69523669898, 37412.78149927481, 37439.61442374478, 38827.590172014265, 38569.76094485917, 37337.16768620056, 37107.83364059374, 37630.29013327098, 36653.42204156669, 36013.77034209934, 36676.73206345244], [33097.63671130043, 34302.64971655195, 34265.85883003536, 34290.89973040149, 35325.93640565119, 36035.9120166938, 35307.15500218622, 36490.0620788195, 36569.51677293364, 37684.451958585494, 37370.98164002574, 36108.27161771755, 35868.052225423264, 36171.076184246536, 35192.44754439339, 34684.49073635015, 35459.35725662125], [29576.147776884896, 30144.860455805632, 30442.7794106646, 30790.37947807391, 30813.28752233497, 30848.164376865425, 31040.897058748673, 31108.135161165177, 31066.662767555477, 31391.096995987245, 31421.793402822997, 31592.9986969212, 31799.44706283474, 32015.01923054547, 31976.418468547567, 32100.751466505557, 32272.321538171476], [34346.71094688279, 35007.15564516035, 35321.65090074706, 35709.623880017454, 35819.82292196865, 35973.285630139515, 36351.77456254872, 36398.374227717526, 36345.34015527624, 36682.2965693321, 36808.51116523692, 36860.01848263916, 37172.97532916302, 37403.129025756534, 37415.753531347385, 37633.52054255396, 37751.35898118268], [28335.329312139696, 28880.182589272765, 29139.634699488975, 29459.704418794558, 29550.61635934101, 29677.21993369429, 29989.46550962151, 30027.909273871173, 29984.15725610995, 30262.139359574714, 30366.263802363213, 30408.756278654007, 30666.939233070116, 30856.811293759394, 30867.226250925825, 31046.879551220034, 31144.093836725773], [978.0617717704321, 996.8686878897926, 1009.4940612086315, 1019.5889883982622, 1019.0707220303933, 1022.7502944237184, 1046.6132648300115, 1050.4077497493327, 1052.4025278751033, 1055.8526169456577, 1067.6637039483562, 1073.0074806668395, 1074.0325866373419, 1073.1740486209744, 1077.6683672424672, 1081.7024282171114, 1082.0824327233408], [0.0019383188997990075, 0.003310303417275673, 0.004390505170729142, 0.0025900343084661603, 0.0023572549240331586, 0.0021029218916965853, 0.004353660661036152, 0.010617620151005314, 0.0039478497579710226, 0.004367418451879157, 0.01066099202750248, 0.0009913812194346505, -0.001433940929831956, 0.004528988723204064, 0.003297152340879572, 0.001395211355048387, 1.6558568379565486e-5], [2.3548476e6, 2.378933341758565e6, 2.392090579634666e6, 2.3807073800046365e6, 2.3977795151967825e6, 2.4319379396493128e6, 2.423858581232251e6, 2.4282805069628865e6, 2.418797465669851e6, 2.448840225022281e6, 2.448284760328545e6, 2.426829404032827e6, 2.4201237185990093e6, 2.42410050255653e6, 2.3787167651029266e6, 2.3731934266509307e6, 2.3858579753237274e6], [0.0016459319014481277, 0.0026060837231862517, 0.0030579028050260245, 0.002422889189990973, 0.003002951894317052, 0.004230113301932194, 0.0036900823759737043, 0.0038399887726230405, 0.0032621776774343658, 0.0043425750107642875, 0.0042434185956671715, 0.003090045548153125, 0.00255659074770049, 0.0026328762093507808, 0.0006721357931764173, 0.00042600281092269464, 0.000919742294303056], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.90462950861706; 528.0455417022222 263.20896444463955 … 139.6315153354522 514.6133199916889; … ; 548.5279225621429 279.2934055195549 … 148.2909833554955 546.1593199629804; 556.1133631982354 281.80067661569205 … 149.36606429375087 550.0682599158298], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.90462950861706; 527.2757034644746 262.82523177511626 … 139.42794637934813 513.8630646063175; … ; 528.2815841832507 268.9845979592592 … 142.81751645607113 526.0004074520082; 537.6548375878161 272.4471430547842 … 144.4083029710638 531.8103834916027])
BeforeIT.Data{Float64, Vector{Float64}, Matrix{Float64}}([72422.00000000003, 73119.2113244948, 74205.02905658753, 74808.66588015339, 74941.55646890991, 74665.76801726261, 76058.99057899637, 76245.79027002718, 76671.21079294961, 77557.92199077255, 76612.79221514755, 77353.99030885258, 77795.86209551049, 79096.15469208139, 79008.64173025657, 78952.64357073343, 79801.67256672727], [72422.00000000003, 72740.05726306913, 73433.32545594167, 73637.15391590938, 73264.32538312668, 72466.03059393799, 73684.28955291868, 73391.78199378328, 73585.70956624187, 74053.66582976635, 73729.29639013544, 74385.69203272682, 74383.90917698084, 74684.74601142615, 74723.8701301503, 74416.08737850492, 74498.93432036258], [64900.92049553808, 65538.19640564063, 66535.48961385408, 67069.50248081848, 67172.72373235486, 66903.50597564182, 68172.17904225728, 68335.5624540213, 68714.62681040484, 69520.2649820762, 68660.01538316475, 69331.84407753416, 69729.8452760536, 70909.48436099323, 70834.79606151399, 70776.09287752848, 71547.01376662758], [64900.92049553808, 65198.35311554503, 65843.54625693428, 66019.1866695722, 65669.36317155072, 64932.453514061075, 66043.71872100895, 65777.6473204139, 65949.32464387419, 66379.16977703437, 66075.84031294093, 66671.37895564096, 66671.64985678872, 66954.66865511436, 66993.30586731587, 66709.35479398817, 66792.78902282607], [40512.94792630531, 40840.208320722326, 41305.53984165914, 41711.00511945911, 41894.687484677925, 41866.683132514365, 42444.32406114904, 42590.271654024335, 42815.99641512329, 43266.90819911811, 42783.70470255433, 43113.91253437235, 43331.62818661115, 43967.77836512274, 43893.102349858345, 43882.812991869905, 44303.129476643044], [40512.94792630531, 40628.43455328443, 40875.97820375289, 41057.80617568411, 40957.06254746935, 40633.24360429879, 41119.13450588486, 40996.046092749755, 41092.94015847523, 41312.00371312006, 41173.44314803574, 41459.50593243966, 41431.19966414759, 41515.575221946834, 41512.70554426168, 41361.34141084115, 41359.23254374379], [14866.888022051655, 14989.546306032862, 15037.935334725893, 15245.780718905135, 15147.034463758528, 15493.87482512136, 15632.826606771814, 15829.236266281192, 15813.096380574076, 16054.031110718954, 16005.196167288199, 16250.13161564126, 16377.508002951254, 16550.061837245594, 16593.305186862686, 16616.011308496105, 16790.464330691662], [14866.888022051655, 14911.81916349523, 14881.54662372309, 15007.030110184656, 14808.035939347248, 15037.407863216507, 15144.741120743025, 15236.721307086824, 15176.725469306411, 15328.670812445192, 15402.804386588254, 15626.566658372336, 15659.227046564312, 15627.01966486137, 15693.42232266536, 15661.268495810255, 15674.755417371314], [15944.236265986623, 16326.088581594318, 16887.91227963257, 16754.64983367319, 16712.204370233903, 16230.940226917795, 16921.14727398727, 16954.532333102, 16881.37137998873, 17196.84342529933, 16783.006898983633, 16690.657524708015, 16637.185790392137, 17157.71649897608, 17547.177769990354, 17064.88568689707, 17628.56186026211], [15944.236265986623, 16241.430901611542, 16712.284523949784, 16492.27016808302, 16338.176527706291, 15752.758490078992, 16392.83805652228, 16319.895647887584, 16202.009575697895, 16419.84807812992, 16151.340451055841, 16050.18830314386, 15907.51594569069, 16200.783765665868, 16595.564790392993, 16084.350908942242, 16457.162236693537], [15944.236265986623, 16094.058723275028, 16343.025886229789, 16500.340848481996, 16533.428924523454, 16478.104192084196, 16749.186854531057, 16785.95741959659, 16885.63859301047, 17069.6241385198, 16876.364382305102, 17010.843566656426, 17107.640797904696, 17392.191856376863, 17377.322491552524, 17335.73226374949, 17517.012108835796], [15944.236265986623, 16010.604216323802, 16173.064738283403, 16241.94368966776, 16163.402169630644, 15992.640727107964, 16226.246556393278, 16157.630777161028, 16206.10506205878, 16298.37686914893, 16241.184214205947, 16358.087872570813, 16357.337846342774, 16422.181791670904, 16434.92104954447, 16339.6348566059, 16353.024850374808], [3173.232035084206, 3197.653291865243, 3239.221358508454, 3266.34452779373, 3277.21422733927, 3278.8314501688606, 3324.5097113972497, 3335.9412561468166, 3353.6214566677268, 3388.7922112555248, 3351.1186080563284, 3377.5012151396386, 3394.153049105089, 3444.035792025046, 3438.156423622863, 3424.0532208700006, 3459.8098814254367], [3173.232035084206, 3181.072106008897, 3205.534709268765, 3215.1932119851294, 3203.8684651766534, 3182.233391416645, 3220.7124276999098, 3211.071359456269, 3218.6607196264854, 3235.6783103174057, 3224.991674993811, 3247.8966401916196, 3245.2930700535976, 3251.9525049351028, 3251.699414895149, 3227.3098423187257, 3229.909108756249], [34195.564496956766, 33236.29003339733, 32232.12044903958, 32610.854362204365, 33399.3528682358, 34381.02111500887, 35227.74250115912, 35194.075334332556, 36331.75633249005, 35603.10167760322, 36163.3612650127, 36462.75511732594, 36797.82098173139, 37340.764119067084, 37481.93583023599, 38758.47110947794, 38845.26546314573], [34195.564496956766, 33063.94580094986, 31896.91886333559, 32100.164783663095, 32651.857946658005, 33368.117601027465, 34127.867842987696, 33876.70185150533, 34869.64718391962, 33994.466670343565, 34802.27131892067, 35063.57282918015, 35183.950663796, 35258.16766898117, 35449.22737397987, 36531.44014305431, 36264.03792447053], [33097.63671130043, 32272.921917251715, 31258.478848469193, 31513.624154087403, 32211.722717996305, 33306.751282299694, 34167.049864069755, 34322.32531771258, 35171.009715226, 34562.96242196623, 35122.47681869129, 35163.466483195225, 35348.2808661756, 35920.16612832907, 36506.87940668986, 37369.537526006716, 37765.748564015914], [33097.63671130043, 32105.57315627164, 30933.402758819248, 31020.1173217055, 31490.807578054333, 32325.496964683785, 33100.29197321904, 33037.58290544593, 33755.61282115669, 33001.323444271504, 33800.562914465205, 33814.141690409146, 33797.984143217785, 33916.80031002868, 34527.04990114871, 35222.31358014274, 35256.25380191655], [29576.147776884896, 29866.562247865233, 30331.99273243853, 30619.44740034554, 30661.403311219638, 30559.73560157175, 31045.799811365898, 31138.704457359276, 31298.587874782832, 31665.209041282487, 31274.412452694723, 31524.937276657605, 31698.050878471426, 32241.474581425835, 32245.16035098765, 32163.424861456504, 32520.78836646711], [34346.71094688279, 34683.96858992672, 35205.20441567744, 35452.74561158905, 35516.02530729176, 35351.434468906555, 36105.05493161644, 36168.942952428784, 36382.1897801132, 36805.5331424069, 36353.02320043639, 36756.40262470806, 36977.29913199505, 37597.185603886384, 37532.54461150109, 37541.10739334022, 37936.6870863926], [28335.329312139696, 28613.55992331713, 29043.568747008358, 29247.785136616196, 29299.989582604667, 29164.205529959327, 29785.926894205113, 29838.63319588326, 30014.55743784494, 30363.806994847688, 29990.49561016865, 30323.27532937248, 30505.51039949487, 31016.903974977104, 30963.576487255403, 30970.640605959954, 31296.98570750895], [978.0617717704321, 987.6655678488664, 998.2924657377821, 997.3094688847384, 995.2951138435197, 992.3359051635745, 1021.3242992758516, 1027.9150442332443, 1033.8491555086594, 1049.5227983868685, 1032.5797300337647, 1050.5041761683694, 1054.4952655872246, 1070.8241756819991, 1057.0910990254747, 1071.5606227321766, 1089.538313767022], [0.0019383188997990075, 0.0051548087650874486, 0.004239505247787934, 0.004812667621987732, 0.0014900182709898235, 0.0069742199973843455, 0.007496949121230889, 0.006269621996260133, 0.005849415580643891, 0.00535255629561826, 0.0046390394837423354, 0.003719375986474649, 0.00575211992531921, 0.004704059519839987, 0.004375856626641639, 0.0032099332583697127, 0.001391616241753546], [2.3548476e6, 2.335378999773007e6, 2.324358651011109e6, 2.321950135856575e6, 2.329232123319446e6, 2.3277255603749356e6, 2.3425213444270156e6, 2.3490083007420134e6, 2.369087912047998e6, 2.3544453647151245e6, 2.3548963606062103e6, 2.3729556534649716e6, 2.369337376183663e6, 2.3665289334075074e6, 2.3645619205888854e6, 2.3830237969468483e6, 2.380940987670386e6], [0.0016459319014481277, 0.000829184707799764, 0.00040093821591899757, 0.0003797755830507073, 0.0006943242240241604, 0.0007393459996482003, 0.0014818579538485822, 0.0017884070989414467, 0.0026310310079305293, 0.001951148054538492, 0.0019319961922866348, 0.002628622066165438, 0.0024160377733784748, 0.0022285310154946916, 0.0020822083127071318, 0.0027696859252318187, 0.0025106037377049337], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.90462950861706; 523.1706102630087 260.77901180889194 … 138.34243321988407 509.86239520482536; … ; 556.3739991958122 278.56114861678407 … 148.5335235095041 547.7556502306107; 552.9369861622199 285.19807288493405 … 149.9019855912123 553.5534665291294], [518.0834390395164 258.24326637797435 … 136.99722836422484 504.90462950861706; 520.4577491953551 259.42676224723994 … 137.62506914452456 507.21854286549797; … ; 524.4051910964895 262.55524626166243 … 139.99890521990935 516.2820456177915; 516.1948978068684 266.2469571973316 … 139.94115436257158 516.7704136937779])Note that this will use the number of threads specified when activating the Julia environment. To discover the number of threads available, you can use the command
Threads.nthreads()1To activate Julia with a specific number of threads, say 8, you can use the command julia -t 8 in the terminal.
We can then plot the results of the monte-carlo repetitions. Since we are saving the initial data point, we effectively have T+1 data points in our time series.
Te = T + 1
p1 = errorline(1:Te, data_vector.real_gdp, errorstyle = :ribbon, title = "gdp", titlefont = 10)
p2 = errorline(
1:Te,
data_vector.real_household_consumption,
errorstyle = :ribbon,
title = "household cons.",
titlefont = 10,
)
p3 =
errorline(1:Te, data_vector.real_government_consumption, errorstyle = :ribbon, title = "gov. cons.", titlefont = 10)
p4 = errorline(1:Te, data_vector.real_capitalformation, errorstyle = :ribbon, title = "capital form.", titlefont = 10)
p5 = errorline(1:Te, data_vector.real_exports, errorstyle = :ribbon, title = "exports", titlefont = 10)
p6 = errorline(1:Te, data_vector.real_imports, errorstyle = :ribbon, title = "imports", titlefont = 10)
p7 = errorline(1:Te, data_vector.wages, errorstyle = :ribbon, title = "wages", titlefont = 10)
p8 = errorline(1:Te, data_vector.euribor, errorstyle = :ribbon, title = "euribor", titlefont = 10)
p9 = errorline(
1:Te,
data_vector.nominal_gdp ./ data.real_gdp,
errorstyle = :ribbon,
title = "gdp deflator",
titlefont = 10,
)
plot(p1, p2, p3, p4, p5, p6, p7, p8, p9, layout = (3, 3), legend = false)